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Free NHL prop for Friday, October 16: Beckett Sennecke over 2.5 shots
No game market cleared our bar today. The free prop is Beckett Sennecke over 2.5 shots on goal.
. Written by our daily job from the numbers on the site, before puck drop.
From the desk
Two games and nothing to bet
Friday has two games, both starting after most of the East Coast has gone to bed, and the model wants neither. Pittsburgh at Colorado and Boston at Anaheim are priced about where we have them. A pick with no edge is a coin flip with a logo on it, so there isn't one.
The free prop is Beckett Sennecke over 2.5 shots. He has played 20 minutes a night over his last three, two and a half more than usual, and he's averaging 6.6 shot attempts over his last five against a normal 4.9. The line is still set for the old version of him.
A correction. Today's post says yesterday's Sabres pick was +1.5 at -130. It was posted at -230. The -130 was an in-game price our 7:41 pm pull picked up after puck drop, which it never should have priced. That's fixed, the record uses the price we posted, and the pick still won, for whatever a -230 winner is worth.
Saturday has 14 games, starting with a 1 pm matinee in Washington. The free pick for that one is already set and goes up in the morning.
The pick
No game market cleared our bar today: an edge of at least the free-pick minimum, from a market where the model has a say, with the books in agreement. Posting a pick anyway would be posting noise.
The free prop
Over 2.5 shots
Beckett Sennecke, ANA vs BOS
No book line yet
- We project
- 3.0
- His average
- 2.5
- Our chance
- 57%
Beckett Sennecke over 2.5 shots on goal vs BOS. We project 3.0 shots against his 2.5 average and give the over 57%.
He has played 20:11 a game over his last three, 2.6 minutes more than an average of 17:34 over his last year of games. He has averaged 6.6 shot attempts over his last five games, against 4.9 over his last year of games.
Yesterday
Yesterday's free pick was Buffalo Sabres +1.5 at -130. It won. The final was Buffalo Sabres 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 4.
The free prop, Thomas Chabot over 1.5, lost with 0 shots.
Last night
The Sabres beat the Maple Leafs 5-4 in overtime in a game the chances had about even, 3.1 expected goals to 3.0. The Sabres scored three straight at one stage. The Sabres came back from two goals down. Hat trick for Kirill Marchenko. Dennis Gilbert scored for the first time in 49 games.
The Wild beat the Blues 5-4, and the chances agreed: 3.8 expected goals to 3.0. The Wild scored three straight at one stage. Both power plays scored, one for the Wild and one for the Blues. Matt Boldy scored three goals and added one assist. Kirill Kaprizov had 15 shot attempts, more than any other skater that night.
The Golden Knights won 6-2 and earned it, out-chancing the Flames 4.2 to 3.6 in expected goals. The Golden Knights scored four straight at one stage. Both power plays scored, two for the Golden Knights and one for the Flames. Mark Stone scored three goals. Three points for Ivan Barbashev: three assists.
Grit & GF on the slate
The highest-rated skater playing tonight is Tim Washe of the Anaheim Ducks, at 97.6 on the Grit & GF scale.
2 games tonight. Free picks are posted before puck drop and graded the next morning, wins and losses both. You can play tonight's props against our model in Beat the Model.
Play Beat the Model · Model report card · What an edge means
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