Playoff odds
2026–27. The rest of the regular season played 10,000 times with our game model. Updated October 20 at 10:29 AM ET.
- Games left
- 1204
- regular season
- Near locks
- 0
- 99% or better
- Coin flips
- 21
- between 25% and 75%
Eastern Conference
| Team | Now | Projected points | Make playoffs | Win division | First overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 15 (10 GP) | 109 | 93% | 61% | 21% |
| OTT | 12 (9 GP) | 103 | 84% | 30% | 9% |
| TBL | 12 (8 GP) | 103 | 82% | 30% | 9% |
| FLA | 12 (9 GP) | 100 | 71% | 19% | 5% |
| NJD | 8 (8 GP) | 95 | 56% | 10% | 2% |
| BUF | 10 (9 GP) | 94 | 51% | 8% | 1% |
| NYR | 15 (11 GP) | 92 | 44% | 6% | 1% |
| PIT | 7 (10 GP) | 92 | 43% | 5% | 1% |
| DET | 8 (8 GP) | 92 | 41% | 5% | 1% |
| BOS | 14 (9 GP) | 92 | 40% | 5% | 1% |
| NYI | 9 (8 GP) | 91 | 40% | 5% | 1% |
| WSH | 10 (8 GP) | 91 | 40% | 5% | 1% |
| CBJ | 6 (7 GP) | 91 | 38% | 5% | 1% |
| MTL | 9 (8 GP) | 90 | 32% | 3% | <1% |
| PHI | 7 (11 GP) | 88 | 27% | 3% | <1% |
| TOR | 10 (10 GP) | 84 | 15% | 1% | <1% |
The dashed line is the bubble: about 92 points on current projections.
Western Conference
| Team | Now | Projected points | Make playoffs | Win division | First overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 16 (10 GP) | 106 | 91% | 50% | 15% |
| COL | 11 (9 GP) | 105 | 88% | 37% | 12% |
| EDM | 13 (8 GP) | 101 | 82% | 29% | 7% |
| UTA | 14 (10 GP) | 100 | 76% | 19% | 5% |
| MIN | 13 (9 GP) | 99 | 72% | 17% | 4% |
| DAL | 9 (8 GP) | 97 | 66% | 13% | 3% |
| ANA | 8 (8 GP) | 93 | 53% | 8% | 1% |
| WPG | 10 (8 GP) | 93 | 48% | 6% | 1% |
| LAK | 2 (6 GP) | 91 | 45% | 6% | 1% |
| STL | 7 (8 GP) | 90 | 39% | 4% | 1% |
| NSH | 9 (8 GP) | 90 | 37% | 4% | <1% |
| SJS | 9 (9 GP) | 89 | 35% | 4% | <1% |
| SEA | 11 (9 GP) | 88 | 34% | 3% | <1% |
| CGY | 4 (8 GP) | 82 | 16% | 1% | <1% |
| CHI | 6 (9 GP) | 80 | 9% | <1% | <1% |
| VAN | 5 (10 GP) | 78 | 8% | <1% | <1% |
The dashed line is the bubble: about 92 points on current projections.
Biggest movers
Change in playoff odds since 2026-10-13.
- Pittsburgh Penguins−16 pts to 43%
- Anaheim Ducks−12 pts to 53%
- Florida Panthers+11 pts to 71%
- Boston Bruins+10 pts to 40%
- Columbus Blue Jackets−6 pts to 38%
- Minnesota Wild+6 pts to 72%
- Utah Mammoth+6 pts to 76%
- New York Islanders+5 pts to 40%
How this works
Each simulated season starts by drawing each team's strength from a range around our estimate, since the estimate could be off and odds that ignore that come out overconfident. The remaining games are then played with the same scoring model as our game prices, goalie-pulled finishes included.
The top three in each division make it, then the two best remaining teams in each conference. Ties go to regulation wins, then a coin flip. In October the projections lean on last season, so the ranges are wide. They tighten as games are played.