Blog
The free pick every game day, with the numbers behind it, posted before puck drop and graded after. Plus the long reads on how the models work.
Latest free pick · Tuesday, October 20, 2026
Free NHL prop for Tuesday, October 20: Kent Johnson over 1.5 shots
No game market cleared our bar today, so the free play is a prop: Kent Johnson over 1.5 shots on goal.
Read the postPreviews and notes
Game preview · Tuesday, October 20, 2026
Tampa at Vegas looks like a coin flip until you check the scoreboardThe underlying numbers call these two twins, but the goals and the goaltending say otherwise.
Game preview · Monday, October 19, 2026
Sharks visit Toronto with Celebrini on a tearMacklin Celebrini has 11 points in six games for San Jose, which allows 29 goals in eight. Toronto hosts on one day of rest.
Game preview · Monday, October 19, 2026
Penguins carry good numbers and a bad record into UtahPittsburgh has lost three straight despite a 53.1 percent expected goals share. Utah hosts at 9:00 pm ET after a 6-2 home loss.
Player spotlight · Monday, October 19, 2026
Will Smith's shot volume has jumped over the last three gamesThe Sharks center averaged 1.4 shots a game early and 4.33 over his last three. Ice time rose too, but it doesn't cover all of it.
Game preview · Monday, October 19, 2026
Rangers host Ducks after a 7-1 loss and an overtime shutoutNew York has dropped its last two on the road, yet its goals-against average still sits at 2.2 per game through ten.
Prospect note · Monday, October 19, 2026
Egor Surin, Nashville's No. 4 prospect, at 14 KHL gamesThe Predators' 2024 first-rounder has ten points in 14 games for Lokomotiv Yaroslavl at 20, and ranks fourth among our prospects.
Earlier days
- Free NHL pick for Monday, October 19: San Jose Sharks +1.5 at Toronto Maple LeafsLost · Monday, October 19, 2026
- Free NHL prop for Sunday, October 18: Bradly Nadeau over 0.5 shotsSunday, October 18, 2026
- Free NHL prop for Saturday, October 17: Matthew Schaefer over 2.5 shotsSaturday, October 17, 2026
- Free NHL prop for Friday, October 16: Beckett Sennecke over 2.5 shotsFriday, October 16, 2026
- Free NHL pick for Thursday, October 15: Buffalo Sabres +1.5 at Toronto Maple LeafsWon · Thursday, October 15, 2026
Long reads
Grit & GF, Research
Does grit win games?
We tested Grit & GF the way we said we would. The rating repeats, it isn't a list of stars, and it doesn't predict results beyond expected goals. One part does.
Read itGrit & GF
Pricing the intangibles
Some players help win games in ways the scoresheet doesn't record. Grit & GF is an attempt to find them in the shift data.
Read itMethodology, Backtest, Game model
Priced blind
We had the model price two seasons of games it was never fitted on. It has some read on who wins, it overstates that read, and it has no read at all on totals.
Read it