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Tampa at Vegas looks like a coin flip until you check the scoreboard
The underlying numbers call these two twins, but the goals and the goaltending say otherwise.
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Tampa Bay and Vegas have nearly the same expected goals share, 57.2 percent for the Lightning and 57.5 for the Golden Knights. They also come in with the same two days of rest. The books at nine shops see a pure coin flip tonight at 10:30 ET, and honestly that tracks.
The scoreboard tells a different story. Vegas is putting up 4.2 goals a game and has won 8 of 10, including back-to-back 6-2 wins at home last week. Tampa is at 3.12 a game, which is perfectly good, but it's a full goal behind. Same quality of chances, different results at the finish.
Some of that gap might be in the crease. Carter Hart has the most games in net for Vegas and sits at a .911 save percentage, about 2 goals saved above expected. Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa's busiest goalie, is at .886 and right at zero by that measure. Neither is a confirmed starter, so treat that as a team-level read.
If you want a skater to watch, Jack Eichel has 18 points in 10 games, 13 of them assists. On the Tampa side, Brandon Hagel has 6 goals and 38 shots, so he's not short on looks.
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