Prospect board, #700 overall
Adam Kelly
Right wing, 18.0 years old, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL), 6′0″ 185 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
13%
Scouting report
Adam Kelly is a 17-year-old right wing with Kingston Frontenacs in the OHL. He has 1 goal and 1 assist in 7 games, 0.29 a game, which works out to about 3 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 4.4 a game, one of the better offences around. Linemates like that pad a stat line, so the model takes some of his points back. Listed at 6-foot-0 and 185 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is a long shot, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 13% chance of becoming an NHL regular. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite2%
- First-liner2%
- Middle-sixer9%
- Fourth-liner13%
- Tweener26%
- AHLer41%
How he got there
1His line
0.29 P/GP
1 G, 1 A in 7 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
3 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−15%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
18.0
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
44 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Kingston Frontenacs | OHL | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.29 |
| Last season | Kingston Frontenacs | OHL | 50 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 0.24 |