Prospect board, #415 overall
Adrian Sgro
Defence, 16.5 years old, Sarnia Sting (OHL), 6′0″ 186 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
23%
Scouting report
Adrian Sgro is a 16-year-old defenceman with Sarnia Sting in the OHL. He has 1 goal and 2 assists in 12 games, 0.25 a game, which works out to about 3 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate.
At 16.5 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 6-foot-0 and 186 pounds. His most likely outcome is a long shot, on a small sample. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 23% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 9% of a top-pair career. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a small sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite1%
- Top-pair9%
- Second-pair12%
- Third-pair23%
- Tweener33%
- AHLer47%
How he got there
1His line
0.25 P/GP
1 G, 2 A in 12 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
3 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−11%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
16.5
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
33 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Sarnia Sting | OHL | 12 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.25 |