Prospect board, #43 overall
Aiden Kelly
Centre, 16.6 years old, Brantford Bulldogs (OHL), 6′0″ 181 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
58%
Scouting report
Aiden Kelly is a 16-year-old centre with Brantford Bulldogs in the OHL. He has 5 goals and 11 assists in 12 games, 1.33 a game, which works out to about 16 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people.
At 16.6 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 6-foot-0 and 181 pounds. His most likely outcome is a middle-sixer, on a small sample. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 58% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 28% of a first-line career and 15% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 57 points a season at his best. Moving up a tier would take scoring well above his league's top-line rate.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a small sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite15%
- First-liner28%
- Middle-sixer (most likely)51%
- Fourth-liner58%
- Tweener79%
- AHLer83%
How he got there
1His line
1.33 P/GP
5 G, 11 A in 12 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
16 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−2%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
16.6
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
57 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Brantford Bulldogs | OHL | 12 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 1.33 |