Prospect board, #1464 overall
Alexander Donovan
Right wing, 19.4 years old, Saint John Sea Dogs (QMJHL), 5′11″ 183 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
5%
Scouting report
Alexander Donovan is a 19-year-old right wing with Saint John Sea Dogs in the QMJHL, undrafted. He has 6 goals and 4 assists in 11 games, 0.91 a game, which works out to about 8 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is goals. His team scores 3.2 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. He's producing without much support, and the model bumps him up for it. Listed at 5-foot-11 and 183 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is a long shot, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 5% chance of becoming an NHL regular. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner2%
- Middle-sixer3%
- Fourth-liner5%
- Tweener5%
- AHLer26%
How he got there
1His line
0.91 P/GP
6 G, 4 A in 11 games, QMJHL
2League exchange rate
8 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+21%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
19.4
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
44 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Saint John Sea Dogs | QMJHL | 11 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 0.91 |
| Last season | Saint John Sea Dogs | QMJHL | 63 | 25 | 28 | 53 | 0.84 |