Alexandre Taillefer

Defence, 18.7 years old, Québec Remparts (QMJHL), 6′1″ 168 lb, shoots left

Odds he's an NHL regular

18%

AHLer

Scouting report

Alexandre Taillefer is an 18-year-old defenceman with Québec Remparts in the QMJHL. He has 2 goals and 11 assists in 9 games, 1.44 a game, which works out to about 13 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. That is up from 0.61 a game last season. His team scores 4.8 a game, one of the better offences around. And the five best scorers around him average 1.37 points a game, well above the norm. Linemates like that pad a stat line, so the model takes some of his points back. Listed at 6-foot-1 and 168 pounds.

The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him an 18% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 3% of a top-pair career. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite1%
Top-pair3%
Second-pair8%
Third-pair18%
Tweener25%
AHLer (most likely)51%

How he got there

1His line
1.44 P/GP
2 G, 11 A in 9 games, QMJHL
2League exchange rate
13 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−19%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
18.7
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
28 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
This season	Québec Remparts	QMJHL	9	2	11	13	1.44
Last season	Québec Remparts	QMJHL	28	2	15	17	0.61