Alexis Gendron

Forward, 22.7 years old, Providence Bruins (AHL), 5′11″ 190 lb, shoots left

Odds he's an NHL regular

18%

AHLer

Scouting report

Alexis Gendron is a 22-year-old forward with Providence Bruins in the AHL. He has 11 goals and 14 assists in 57 games, 0.44 a game, which works out to about 14 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Listed at 5-foot-11 and 190 pounds.

His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him an 18% chance of becoming an NHL regular. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite<1%
First-liner1%
Middle-sixer4%
Fourth-liner18%
Tweener28%
AHLer (most likely)95%

How he got there

1His line
0.44 P/GP
11 G, 14 A in 57 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
14 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−2%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
22.7
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
31 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
Last season	Providence Bruins	AHL	57	11	14	25	0.44