Prospect board, #47 overall
Alex McLean
Centre, 18.1 years old, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL), 5′10″ 185 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
49%
Scouting report
Alex McLean is an 18-year-old centre with Kingston Frontenacs in the OHL. He has 4 goals and 4 assists in 12 games, 0.67 a game, which works out to about 8 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is goals. His team scores 4.4 a game, one of the better offences around. Some of those points come from the company he keeps, and the model discounts them. Listed at 5-foot-10 and 185 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is a tweener, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 49% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 28% of a first-line career and 26% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 65 points a season at his best. His odds move most with next season's line, so a big jump would matter more than a repeat.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite26%
- First-liner28%
- Middle-sixer44%
- Fourth-liner49%
- Tweener (most likely)63%
- AHLer79%
How he got there
1His line
0.67 P/GP
4 G, 4 A in 12 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
8 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−12%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
18.1
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
65 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Kingston Frontenacs | OHL | 12 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 0.67 |
| Last season | Kingston Frontenacs | OHL | 57 | 11 | 34 | 45 | 0.79 |