Andrew Basha

Left wing, 15.1 years old, Calgary Wranglers (AHL), 6′0″ 190 lb, shoots left

Odds he's an NHL regular

66%

Fourth-liner

Scouting report

Andrew Basha is a 15-year-old left wing with Calgary Wranglers in the AHL. He has 1 goal and 1 assist in 7 games, 0.29 a game, which works out to about 9 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 4.0 a game, one of the better offences around. Linemates like that pad a stat line, so the model takes some of his points back.

At 15.1 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 6-foot-0 and 190 pounds. His most likely outcome is a fourth-liner, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 66% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 26% of a first-line career and 12% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 50 points a season at his best. A fourth-line job tends to come from penalty killing and faceoffs more than from scoring.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite12%
First-liner26%
Middle-sixer47%
Fourth-liner (most likely)66%
Tweener71%
AHLer72%

How he got there

1His line
0.29 P/GP
1 G, 1 A in 7 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
9 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−14%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
15.1
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
51 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
This season	Calgary Wranglers	AHL	7	1	1	2	0.29
Last season	Calgary Wranglers	AHL	27	1	4	5	0.19