Prospect board, #305 overall
Antoine Provencher
Centre, 17.2 years old, Charlottetown Islanders (QMJHL), 5′11″ 191 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
29%
Scouting report
Antoine Provencher is a 17-year-old centre with Charlottetown Islanders in the QMJHL. He has 3 goals and 1 assist in 10 games, 0.40 a game, which works out to about 4 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate.
At 17.2 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 5-foot-11 and 191 pounds. His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 29% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 10% of a first-line career. If he makes it, figure about 45 points a season at his best. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite2%
- First-liner10%
- Middle-sixer17%
- Fourth-liner29%
- Tweener34%
- AHLer (most likely)53%
How he got there
1His line
0.40 P/GP
3 G, 1 A in 10 games, QMJHL
2League exchange rate
4 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+5%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
17.2
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
45 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Charlottetown Islanders | QMJHL | 10 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0.40 |
| Last season | Charlottetown Islanders | QMJHL | 51 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 0.29 |