Prospect board, #1912 overall
Ashton Brown
Right wing, 19.6 years old, Victoria Royals (WHL)
Odds he's an NHL regular
1%
Scouting report
Ashton Brown is a 19-year-old right wing with Victoria Royals in the WHL, undrafted. He has 1 goal and 2 assists in 6 games, 0.50 a game, which works out to about 6 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 4.2 a game, one of the better offences around. And the five best scorers around him average 1.25 points a game, well above the norm. Some of those points come from the company he keeps, and the model discounts them.
His most likely outcome is a long shot, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 1% chance of becoming an NHL regular. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner<1%
- Middle-sixer<1%
- Fourth-liner1%
- Tweener1%
- AHLer18%
How he got there
1His line
0.50 P/GP
1 G, 2 A in 6 games, WHL
2League exchange rate
6 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−21%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
19.6
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
36 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Victoria Royals | WHL | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.50 |
| Last season | Victoria Royals | WHL | 65 | 12 | 11 | 23 | 0.35 |