Beckett Hamilton

Right wing, 18.5 years old, Red Deer Rebels (WHL)

Odds he's an NHL regular

52%

Fourth-liner

Scouting report

Beckett Hamilton is an 18-year-old right wing with Red Deer Rebels in the WHL. He has 9 goals and 11 assists in 9 games, 2.22 a game, which works out to about 26 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. That is up from 0.93 a game last season.

The model's median outcome for him is a fourth-liner, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 52% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 24% of a first-line career and 12% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 51 points a season at his best. A fourth-line job tends to come from penalty killing and faceoffs more than from scoring.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite12%
First-liner24%
Middle-sixer33%
Fourth-liner (most likely)52%
Tweener60%
AHLer86%

How he got there

1His line
2.22 P/GP
9 G, 11 A in 9 games, WHL
2League exchange rate
26 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−3%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
18.5
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
51 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
This season	Red Deer Rebels	WHL	9	9	11	20	2.22
Last season	Red Deer Rebels	WHL	67	24	38	62	0.93