Ben Harvey

Right wing, 17.1 years old, Prince Albert Raiders (WHL)

Odds he's an NHL regular

42%

Tweener

Scouting report

Ben Harvey is a 17-year-old right wing with Prince Albert Raiders in the WHL. He has 5 goals and 5 assists in 11 games, 0.91 a game, which works out to about 10 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is goals. That is up from 0.60 a game last season. His team scores 2.8 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. He's producing without much support, and the model bumps him up for it.

At 17.1 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. His most likely outcome is a tweener, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 42% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 13% of a first-line career and 6% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 48 points a season at his best. His odds move most with next season's line, so a big jump would matter more than a repeat.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite6%
First-liner13%
Middle-sixer28%
Fourth-liner42%
Tweener (most likely)58%
AHLer76%

How he got there

1His line
0.91 P/GP
5 G, 5 A in 11 games, WHL
2League exchange rate
11 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+22%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
17.1
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
48 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
This season	Prince Albert Raiders	WHL	11	5	5	10	0.91
Last season	Prince Albert Raiders	WHL	45	14	13	27	0.60