Prospect board, #769 overall
Blake Smith
Defence, 21.9 years old, Toronto Marlies (AHL), 6′5″ 219 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
13%
Scouting report
Blake Smith is a 21-year-old defenceman with Toronto Marlies in the AHL. He has 0 goals and 0 assists in 2 games, 0.00 a game, which works out to about 0 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 3.7 a game, one of the better offences around. And the five best scorers around him average 1.39 points a game, well above the norm. Linemates like that pad a stat line, so the model takes some of his points back. Listed at 6-foot-5 and 219 pounds.
His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 13% chance of becoming an NHL regular. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- Top-pair<1%
- Second-pair1%
- Third-pair13%
- Tweener20%
- AHLer (most likely)82%
How he got there
1His line
0.00 P/GP
0 G, 0 A in 2 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
0 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−21%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
21.9
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
20 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Toronto Marlies | AHL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Last season | Toronto Marlies | AHL | 62 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 0.15 |