Prospect board, #1601 overall
Brad Gardiner
Centre, 21.5 years old, Barrie Colts (OHL), 6′1″ 191 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
4%
Scouting report
Brad Gardiner is a 21-year-old centre with Barrie Colts in the OHL, undrafted. He has 31 goals and 34 assists in 67 games, 0.97 a game, which works out to about 12 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. The five best scorers around him average 1.20 points a game, well above the norm. Some of those points come from the company he keeps, and the model discounts them. At 21.5 he is old for the league, so the model expects him to outscore younger players and gives less credit for it. Listed at 6-foot-1 and 191 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is a long shot, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 4% chance of becoming an NHL regular. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner<1%
- Middle-sixer1%
- Fourth-liner4%
- Tweener7%
- AHLer20%
How he got there
1His line
0.97 P/GP
31 G, 34 A in 67 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
12 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−9%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
21.5
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
35 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | Barrie Colts | OHL | 67 | 31 | 34 | 65 | 0.97 |