GRIT & GF

Prospect board, #138 overall

Braidy Wassilyn

Left wing, 18.3 years old, Saginaw Spirit (OHL), 6′0″ 194 lb, shoots left

Odds he's an NHL regular

39%

Tweener

Scouting report

Braidy Wassilyn is an 18-year-old left wing with Saginaw Spirit in the OHL. He has 10 goals and 11 assists in 11 games, 1.91 a game, which works out to about 22 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. That is up from 0.74 a game last season. The five best scorers around him average 1.40 points a game, well above the norm.

It barely moves his projection. Listed at 6-foot-0 and 194 pounds. His most likely outcome is a tweener, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 39% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 13% of a first-line career and 4% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 47 points a season at his best. His odds move most with next season's line, so a big jump would matter more than a repeat.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

  1. Elite4%
  2. First-liner13%
  3. Middle-sixer26%
  4. Fourth-liner39%
  5. Tweener (most likely)60%
  6. AHLer75%

How he got there

  1. 1His line

    1.91 P/GP

    10 G, 11 A in 11 games, OHL

  2. 2League exchange rate

    23 pts

    NHL-equivalent points over 82

  3. 3Team around him

    −6%

    Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster

  4. 4Age

    18.3

    On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20

  5. 5Draft slot

    None

    Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers

  6. 6If he makes it

    47 pts

    Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

SeasonTeamLeagueGPGAPP/GP
This seasonSaginaw SpiritOHL111011211.91
Last seasonLondon KnightsOHL621927460.74