Prospect board, #330 overall
Brock Burch
Centre, 16.7 years old, Swift Current Broncos (WHL)
Odds he's an NHL regular
26%
Scouting report
Brock Burch is a 16-year-old centre with Swift Current Broncos in the WHL. He has 3 goals and 3 assists in 49 games, 0.12 a game, which works out to about 1 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 2.7 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. And the five best scorers around him average only 0.66 points a game. He's producing without much support, and the model bumps him up for it.
At 16.7 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 26% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 10% of a first-line career. If he makes it, figure about 47 points a season at his best. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite1%
- First-liner10%
- Middle-sixer18%
- Fourth-liner26%
- Tweener32%
- AHLer (most likely)55%
How he got there
1His line
0.12 P/GP
3 G, 3 A in 49 games, WHL
2League exchange rate
1 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+29%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
16.7
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
47 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | Swift Current Broncos | WHL | 49 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0.12 |