Calder Hamilton

Defence, 17.5 years old, Calgary Hitmen (WHL)

Odds he's an NHL regular

48%

Tweener

Scouting report

Calder Hamilton is a 17-year-old defenceman with Calgary Hitmen in the WHL. He has 2 goals and 5 assists in 9 games, 0.78 a game, which works out to about 9 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. That is up from 0.53 a game last season. His team scores 4.1 a game, one of the better offences around. And the five best scorers around him average 1.28 points a game, well above the norm. Linemates like that pad a stat line, so the model takes some of his points back.

His most likely outcome is a tweener, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 48% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 14% of a top-pair career and 9% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 33 points a season at his best. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. His odds move most with next season's line, so a big jump would matter more than a repeat.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite9%
Top-pair14%
Second-pair25%
Third-pair48%
Tweener (most likely)61%
AHLer74%

How he got there

1His line
0.78 P/GP
2 G, 5 A in 9 games, WHL
2League exchange rate
9 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−19%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
17.5
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
33 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
This season	Calgary Hitmen	WHL	9	2	5	7	0.78
Last season	Calgary Hitmen	WHL	53	6	22	28	0.53