Prospect board, #1638 overall
Caleb Matthews
Right wing, 19.3 years old, Victoria Royals (WHL)
Odds he's an NHL regular
3%
Scouting report
Caleb Matthews is a 19-year-old right wing with Victoria Royals in the WHL, undrafted. He has 2 goals and 4 assists in 9 games, 0.67 a game, which works out to about 8 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 4.2 a game, one of the better offences around. And the five best scorers around him average 1.25 points a game, well above the norm. Some of those points come from the company he keeps, and the model discounts them.
His most likely outcome is a long shot, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 3% chance of becoming an NHL regular. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner<1%
- Middle-sixer1%
- Fourth-liner3%
- Tweener3%
- AHLer28%
How he got there
1His line
0.67 P/GP
2 G, 4 A in 9 games, WHL
2League exchange rate
8 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−20%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
19.3
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
42 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Victoria Royals | WHL | 9 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0.67 |
| Last season | Victoria Royals | WHL | 65 | 15 | 21 | 36 | 0.55 |