Prospect board, #7 overall
Carson Carels
Defence, 18.2 years old, Prince George Cougars (WHL)
Odds he's an NHL regular
86%
Scouting report
Carson Carels is an 18-year-old defenceman with Prince George Cougars in the WHL. He has 20 goals and 53 assists in 58 games, 1.26 a game, which works out to about 15 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people.
The model's median outcome for him is a top-pair defenceman, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him an 86% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 70% of a top-pair career and 38% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 48 points a season at his best. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. If the scoring holds up against older players, the top-pair odds go up with it.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite38%
- Top-pair (most likely)70%
- Second-pair71%
- Third-pair86%
- Tweener89%
- AHLer92%
How he got there
1His line
1.26 P/GP
20 G, 53 A in 58 games, WHL
2League exchange rate
15 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
No change
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
18.2
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
48 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | Prince George Cougars | WHL | 58 | 20 | 53 | 73 | 1.26 |