Prospect board, #1488 overall
Carson Harmer
Centre, 19.7 years old, London Knights (OHL), 5′10″ 195 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
6%
Scouting report
Carson Harmer is a 19-year-old centre with London Knights in the OHL, undrafted. He has 4 goals and 7 assists in 9 games, 1.22 a game, which works out to about 14 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. That is up from 0.67 a game last season. At 19.7 he is old for the league, so the model expects him to outscore younger players and gives less credit for it. Listed at 5-foot-10 and 195 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is a long shot, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 6% chance of becoming an NHL regular. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner<1%
- Middle-sixer1%
- Fourth-liner6%
- Tweener7%
- AHLer25%
How he got there
1His line
1.22 P/GP
4 G, 7 A in 9 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
14 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−12%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
19.7
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
32 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | London Knights | OHL | 9 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 1.22 |
| Last season | Saginaw Spirit | OHL | 66 | 18 | 26 | 44 | 0.67 |