Prospect board, #732 overall
Carter Bear
Left wing, 19.9 years old, Grand Rapids Griffins (AHL), 6′1″ 190 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
13%
Scouting report
Carter Bear is a 19-year-old left wing with Grand Rapids Griffins in the AHL. He has 2 goals and 2 assists in 5 games, 0.80 a game, which works out to about 26 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate.
At 19.9 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 6-foot-1 and 190 pounds. The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 13% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 5% of a first-line career. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner5%
- Middle-sixer6%
- Fourth-liner13%
- Tweener16%
- AHLer (most likely)57%
How he got there
1His line
0.80 P/GP
2 G, 2 A in 5 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
26 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−3%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
19.9
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
43 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Grand Rapids Griffins | AHL | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0.80 |
| Last season | Everett Silvertips | WHL | 53 | 36 | 41 | 77 | 1.45 |