Prospect board, #1500 overall
Carter Sotheran
Defence, 21.2 years old, Edmonton Oil Kings (WHL)
Odds he's an NHL regular
6%
Scouting report
Carter Sotheran is a 21-year-old defenceman with Edmonton Oil Kings in the WHL, undrafted. He has 19 goals and 53 assists in 67 games, 1.07 a game, which works out to about 12 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. The five best scorers around him average 1.24 points a game, well above the norm. Linemates like that pad a stat line, so the model takes some of his points back. At 21.2 he is old for the league, so the model expects him to outscore younger players and gives less credit for it.
His most likely outcome is a long shot, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 6% chance of becoming an NHL regular. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- Top-pair1%
- Second-pair1%
- Third-pair6%
- Tweener7%
- AHLer22%
How he got there
1His line
1.07 P/GP
19 G, 53 A in 67 games, WHL
2League exchange rate
12 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−12%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
21.2
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
25 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | Edmonton Oil Kings | WHL | 67 | 19 | 53 | 72 | 1.07 |