Chad Lygitsakos

Centre, 18.6 years old, Shawinigan Cataractes (QMJHL), 5′9″ 180 lb, shoots left

Odds he's an NHL regular

28%

AHLer

Scouting report

Chad Lygitsakos is an 18-year-old centre with Shawinigan Cataractes in the QMJHL. He has 6 goals and 12 assists in 10 games, 1.80 a game, which works out to about 17 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. That is up from 0.94 a game last season. His team scores 3.6 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. And the five best scorers around him average only 0.82 points a game. He's producing without much support, and the model bumps him up for it. Listed at 5-foot-9 and 180 pounds.

His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 28% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 9% of a first-line career and 2% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 45 points a season at his best. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite2%
First-liner9%
Middle-sixer16%
Fourth-liner28%
Tweener37%
AHLer (most likely)68%

How he got there

1His line
1.80 P/GP
6 G, 12 A in 10 games, QMJHL
2League exchange rate
17 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+18%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
18.6
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
45 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
This season	Shawinigan Cataractes	QMJHL	10	6	12	18	1.80
Last season	Shawinigan Cataractes	QMJHL	63	21	38	59	0.94