Prospect board, #113 overall
Chase Surkan
Left wing, 17.5 years old, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL)
Odds he's an NHL regular
48%
Scouting report
Chase Surkan is a 17-year-old left wing with Brandon Wheat Kings in the WHL. He has 4 goals and 9 assists in 11 games, 1.18 a game, which works out to about 14 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. That is up from 0.84 a game last season.
His most likely outcome is a tweener, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 48% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 14% of a first-line career and 5% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 47 points a season at his best. His odds move most with next season's line, so a big jump would matter more than a repeat.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite5%
- First-liner14%
- Middle-sixer34%
- Fourth-liner48%
- Tweener (most likely)58%
- AHLer77%
How he got there
1His line
1.18 P/GP
4 G, 9 A in 11 games, WHL
2League exchange rate
14 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
No change
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
17.5
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
47 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Brandon Wheat Kings | WHL | 11 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 1.18 |
| Last season | Brandon Wheat Kings | WHL | 45 | 20 | 18 | 38 | 0.84 |