GRIT & GF

Prospect board, #834 overall

Chas Sharpe

Defence, 22.8 years old, Toronto Marlies (AHL), 6′3″ 204 lb, shoots right

Odds he's an NHL regular

13%

AHLer

Scouting report

Chas Sharpe is a 22-year-old defenceman with Toronto Marlies in the AHL. He has 3 goals and 6 assists in 33 games, 0.27 a game, which works out to about 9 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Listed at 6-foot-3 and 204 pounds.

His most likely outcome is an AHLer, on a small sample. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 13% chance of becoming an NHL regular. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a small sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

  1. Elite<1%
  2. Top-pair<1%
  3. Second-pair<1%
  4. Third-pair13%
  5. Tweener24%
  6. AHLer (most likely)64%

How he got there

  1. 1His line

    0.27 P/GP

    3 G, 6 A in 33 games, AHL

  2. 2League exchange rate

    9 pts

    NHL-equivalent points over 82

  3. 3Team around him

    No change

    Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster

  4. 4Age

    22.8

    On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20

  5. 5Draft slot

    None

    Passed over, read as a pick after the last one

  6. 6If he makes it

    19 pts

    Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

SeasonTeamLeagueGPGAPP/GP
Last seasonToronto MarliesAHL333690.27