Prospect board, #994 overall
Christian Humphreys
Left wing, 20.6 years old, Kitchener Rangers (OHL), 5′11″ 170 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
8%
Scouting report
Christian Humphreys is a 20-year-old left wing with Kitchener Rangers in the OHL, undrafted. He has 27 goals and 58 assists in 63 games, 1.35 a game, which works out to about 16 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. His team scores 4.5 a game, one of the better offences around. Some of those points come from the company he keeps, and the model discounts them. At 20.6 he is old for the league, so the model expects him to outscore younger players and gives less credit for it. Listed at 5-foot-11 and 170 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him an 8% chance of becoming an NHL regular. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner1%
- Middle-sixer3%
- Fourth-liner8%
- Tweener13%
- AHLer (most likely)55%
How he got there
1His line
1.35 P/GP
27 G, 58 A in 63 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
16 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−15%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
20.6
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
36 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | Kitchener Rangers | OHL | 63 | 27 | 58 | 85 | 1.35 |