GRIT & GF

Prospect board, #2168 overall

Clarke Schaefer

Right wing, 19.4 years old, Swift Current Broncos (WHL)

Odds he's an NHL regular

2%

Long shot

Scouting report

Clarke Schaefer is a 19-year-old right wing with Swift Current Broncos in the WHL, undrafted. He has 2 goals and 1 assist in 7 games, 0.43 a game, which works out to about 5 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. The five best scorers around him average only 0.68 points a game. Scoring without much help counts for more, so the model nudges him up.

The model's median outcome for him is a long shot, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 2% chance of becoming an NHL regular. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

  1. Elite<1%
  2. First-liner<1%
  3. Middle-sixer<1%
  4. Fourth-liner2%
  5. Tweener2%
  6. AHLer9%

How he got there

  1. 1His line

    0.43 P/GP

    2 G, 1 A in 7 games, WHL

  2. 2League exchange rate

    5 pts

    NHL-equivalent points over 82

  3. 3Team around him

    +13%

    Credit for a weak offence or thin help

  4. 4Age

    19.4

    On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20

  5. 5Draft slot

    None

    Passed over, read as a pick after the last one

  6. 6If he makes it

    33 pts

    Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

SeasonTeamLeagueGPGAPP/GP
This seasonSwift Current BroncosWHL72130.43
Last seasonEverett SilvertipsWHL34108180.53