Prospect board, #404 overall
Cole Emerton
Defence, 18.5 years old, Sarnia Sting (OHL), 5′11″ 185 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
28%
Scouting report
Cole Emerton is an 18-year-old defenceman with Sarnia Sting in the OHL. He has 2 goals and 12 assists in 12 games, 1.17 a game, which works out to about 14 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. That is up from 0.47 a game last season. Listed at 5-foot-11 and 185 pounds.
His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with plenty of games behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 28% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 3% of a top-pair career. If he makes it, figure about 23 points a season at his best. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a full sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite2%
- Top-pair3%
- Second-pair4%
- Third-pair28%
- Tweener45%
- AHLer (most likely)70%
How he got there
1His line
1.17 P/GP
2 G, 12 A in 12 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
14 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−8%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
18.5
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
23 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Sarnia Sting | OHL | 12 | 2 | 12 | 14 | 1.17 |
| Last season | Barrie Colts | OHL | 66 | 4 | 27 | 31 | 0.47 |