Prospect board, #22 overall
Colt Carter
Defence, 17.1 years old, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL)
Odds he's an NHL regular
69%
Scouting report
Colt Carter is a 17-year-old defenceman with Moose Jaw Warriors in the WHL. He has 3 goals and 1 assist in 8 games, 0.50 a game, which works out to about 6 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate.
At 17.1 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. His most likely outcome is a second-pair defenceman, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 69% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 44% of a top-pair career and 29% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 45 points a season at his best. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. Moving up a tier would take the points holding up against better competition.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite29%
- Top-pair44%
- Second-pair (most likely)54%
- Third-pair69%
- Tweener79%
- AHLer88%
How he got there
1His line
0.50 P/GP
3 G, 1 A in 8 games, WHL
2League exchange rate
6 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+9%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
17.1
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
45 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Moose Jaw Warriors | WHL | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0.50 |
| Last season | Moose Jaw Warriors | WHL | 61 | 8 | 30 | 38 | 0.62 |