Prospect board, #333 overall
Crosby Mateychuk
Defence, 16.6 years old, Vancouver Giants (WHL)
Odds he's an NHL regular
32%
Scouting report
Crosby Mateychuk is a 16-year-old defenceman with Vancouver Giants in the WHL. He has 1 goal and 2 assists in 10 games, 0.30 a game, which works out to about 4 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate.
At 16.6 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. His most likely outcome is a long shot, on a small sample. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 32% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 10% of a top-pair career and 2% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 30 points a season at his best. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a small sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite2%
- Top-pair10%
- Second-pair13%
- Third-pair32%
- Tweener35%
- AHLer42%
How he got there
1His line
0.30 P/GP
1 G, 2 A in 10 games, WHL
2League exchange rate
4 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
No change
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
16.6
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
30 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Vancouver Giants | WHL | 10 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.30 |
| Last season | Vancouver Giants | WHL | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |