Prospect board, #144 overall
Cruz Pavao
Right wing, 18.1 years old, Tri-City Americans (WHL)
Odds he's an NHL regular
38%
Scouting report
Cruz Pavao is an 18-year-old right wing with Tri-City Americans in the WHL. He has 5 goals and 2 assists in 10 games, 0.70 a game, which works out to about 8 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 2.7 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. And the five best scorers around him average only 0.72 points a game. Scoring without much help counts for more, so the model nudges him up.
His most likely outcome is a tweener, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 38% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 14% of a first-line career and 5% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 48 points a season at his best. His odds move most with next season's line, so a big jump would matter more than a repeat.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite5%
- First-liner14%
- Middle-sixer25%
- Fourth-liner38%
- Tweener (most likely)54%
- AHLer75%
How he got there
1His line
0.70 P/GP
5 G, 2 A in 10 games, WHL
2League exchange rate
8 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+28%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
18.1
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
48 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Tri-City Americans | WHL | 10 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 0.70 |
| Last season | Tri-City Americans | WHL | 64 | 21 | 22 | 43 | 0.67 |