David Buchman

Defence, 17.2 years old, Brantford Bulldogs (OHL), 5′11″ 182 lb, shoots left

Odds he's an NHL regular

27%

AHLer

Scouting report

David Buchman is a 17-year-old defenceman with Brantford Bulldogs in the OHL. He has 2 goals and 8 assists in 12 games, 0.83 a game, which works out to about 10 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. That is up from 0.12 a game last season.

At 17.2 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 5-foot-11 and 182 pounds. The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, on a small sample. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 27% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 8% of a top-pair career and 3% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 30 points a season at his best. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a small sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite3%
Top-pair8%
Second-pair12%
Third-pair27%
Tweener45%
AHLer (most likely)55%

How he got there

1His line
0.83 P/GP
2 G, 8 A in 12 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
10 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−8%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
17.2
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
31 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
This season	Brantford Bulldogs	OHL	12	2	8	10	0.83
Last season	Brantford Bulldogs	OHL	16	0	2	2	0.13