Prospect board, #55 overall
Daxon Rudolph
Defence, 18.5 years old, Prince Albert Raiders (WHL)
Odds he's an NHL regular
60%
Scouting report
Daxon Rudolph is an 18-year-old defenceman with Prince Albert Raiders in the WHL. He has 28 goals and 50 assists in 68 games, 1.15 a game, which works out to about 13 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 4.8 a game, one of the better offences around. Some of those points come from the company he keeps, and the model discounts them.
The model's median outcome for him is a third-pair defenceman, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 60% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 30% of a top-pair career and 21% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 38 points a season at his best. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. A third-pair job tends to come down to defending more than points.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite21%
- Top-pair30%
- Second-pair30%
- Third-pair (most likely)60%
- Tweener69%
- AHLer82%
How he got there
1His line
1.15 P/GP
28 G, 50 A in 68 games, WHL
2League exchange rate
13 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−14%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
18.5
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
38 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | Prince Albert Raiders | WHL | 68 | 28 | 50 | 78 | 1.15 |