Prospect board, #8 overall
Dima Zhilkin
Left wing, 17.9 years old, Saginaw Spirit (OHL), 5′11″ 195 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
79%
Scouting report
Dima Zhilkin is a 17-year-old left wing with Saginaw Spirit in the OHL. He has 12 goals and 10 assists in 11 games, 2.00 a game, which works out to about 24 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is goals. That is up from 1.27 a game last season. The five best scorers around him average 1.38 points a game, well above the norm.
It barely moves his projection. Listed at 5-foot-11 and 195 pounds. His most likely outcome is a first-liner, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 79% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 68% of a first-line career and 35% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 70 points a season at his best. If the scoring holds up against older players, the first-line odds go up with it.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite35%
- First-liner (most likely)68%
- Middle-sixer78%
- Fourth-liner79%
- Tweener90%
- AHLer95%+
How he got there
1His line
2.00 P/GP
12 G, 10 A in 11 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
24 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−3%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
17.9
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
71 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Saginaw Spirit | OHL | 11 | 12 | 10 | 22 | 2.00 |
| Last season | Saginaw Spirit | OHL | 59 | 36 | 39 | 75 | 1.27 |