GRIT & GF

Prospect board, #1005 overall

Drew Elliott

Left wing, 23.4 years old, San Diego Gulls (AHL), 5′10″ 196 lb, shoots left

Odds he's an NHL regular

11%

AHLer

Scouting report

Drew Elliott is a 23-year-old left wing with San Diego Gulls in the AHL. He has 0 goals and 1 assist in 4 games, 0.25 a game, which works out to about 8 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Listed at 5-foot-10 and 196 pounds.

The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, on a small sample. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him an 11% chance of becoming an NHL regular. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a small sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

  1. Elite<1%
  2. First-liner1%
  3. Middle-sixer2%
  4. Fourth-liner11%
  5. Tweener15%
  6. AHLer (most likely)51%

How he got there

  1. 1His line

    0.25 P/GP

    0 G, 1 A in 4 games, AHL

  2. 2League exchange rate

    8 pts

    NHL-equivalent points over 82

  3. 3Team around him

    +9%

    Credit for a weak offence or thin help

  4. 4Age

    23.4

    On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20

  5. 5Draft slot

    None

    Passed over, read as a pick after the last one

  6. 6If he makes it

    30 pts

    Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

SeasonTeamLeagueGPGAPP/GP
This seasonSan Diego GullsAHL40110.25
Last seasonSan Diego GullsAHL61010.17