Prospect board, #2286 overall
Dylan MacKinnon
Defence, 21.7 years old, Charlottetown Islanders (QMJHL), 6′2″ 202 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
<1%
Scouting report
Dylan MacKinnon is a 21-year-old defenceman with Charlottetown Islanders in the QMJHL, undrafted. He has 1 goal and 11 assists in 47 games, 0.26 a game, which works out to about 2 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. The five best scorers around him average 1.30 points a game, well above the norm. Linemates like that pad a stat line, so the model takes some of his points back. At 21.7 he is old for the league, so the model expects him to outscore younger players and gives less credit for it. Listed at 6-foot-2 and 202 pounds.
His most likely outcome is a long shot, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a under 1% chance of becoming an NHL regular. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- Top-pair<1%
- Second-pair<1%
- Third-pair<1%
- Tweener1%
- AHLer4%
How he got there
1His line
0.26 P/GP
1 G, 11 A in 47 games, QMJHL
2League exchange rate
2 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−8%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
21.7
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
3 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | Charlottetown Islanders | QMJHL | 47 | 1 | 11 | 12 | 0.26 |