Prospect board, #381 overall
Egor Barabanov
Centre, 20.3 years old, Saginaw Spirit (OHL), 6′0″ 175 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
23%
Scouting report
Egor Barabanov is a 20-year-old centre with Saginaw Spirit in the OHL, undrafted. He has 28 goals and 63 assists in 68 games, 1.34 a game, which works out to about 16 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. His team scores 3.0 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. Scoring without much help counts for more, so the model nudges him up. At 20.3 he is old for the league, so the model expects him to outscore younger players and gives less credit for it. Listed at 6-foot-0 and 175 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 23% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 7% of a first-line career. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite2%
- First-liner7%
- Middle-sixer9%
- Fourth-liner23%
- Tweener35%
- AHLer (most likely)79%
How he got there
1His line
1.34 P/GP
28 G, 63 A in 68 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
16 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+11%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
20.3
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
40 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | Saginaw Spirit | OHL | 68 | 28 | 63 | 91 | 1.34 |