Eliot Ogonowski

Left wing, 20.5 years old, Rouyn-Noranda Huskies (QMJHL), 5′9″ 173 lb, shoots left

Odds he's an NHL regular

Long shot

Scouting report

Eliot Ogonowski is a 20-year-old left wing with Rouyn-Noranda Huskies in the QMJHL, undrafted. He has 8 goals and 6 assists in 10 games, 1.40 a game, which works out to about 13 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is goals. That is up from 0.77 a game last season. His team scores 3.1 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. And the five best scorers around him average only 0.77 points a game. Scoring without much help counts for more, so the model nudges him up. At 20.5 he is old for the league, so the model expects him to outscore younger players and gives less credit for it. Listed at 5-foot-9 and 173 pounds.

The model's median outcome for him is a long shot, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 4% chance of becoming an NHL regular. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite<1%
First-liner1%
Middle-sixer2%
Fourth-liner4%
Tweener5%
AHLer24%

How he got there

1His line
1.40 P/GP
8 G, 6 A in 10 games, QMJHL
2League exchange rate
13 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+34%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
20.5
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
42 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
This season	Rouyn-Noranda Huskies	QMJHL	10	8	6	14	1.40
Last season	Rouyn-Noranda Huskies	QMJHL	64	18	31	49	0.77