Prospect board, #157 overall
Ethan Belchetz
Left wing, 18.5 years old, Windsor Spitfires (OHL), 6′5″ 227 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
37%
Scouting report
Ethan Belchetz is an 18-year-old left wing with Windsor Spitfires in the OHL. He has 34 goals and 25 assists in 57 games, 1.04 a game, which works out to about 12 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is goals. Listed at 6-foot-5 and 227 pounds.
His most likely outcome is a tweener, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 37% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 12% of a first-line career and 4% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 46 points a season at his best. His odds move most with next season's line, so a big jump would matter more than a repeat.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite4%
- First-liner12%
- Middle-sixer22%
- Fourth-liner37%
- Tweener (most likely)56%
- AHLer76%
How he got there
1His line
1.04 P/GP
34 G, 25 A in 57 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
12 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−9%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
18.5
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
46 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | Windsor Spitfires | OHL | 57 | 34 | 25 | 59 | 1.04 |