Prospect board, #988 overall
Ethan Czata
Centre, 19.3 years old, Guelph Storm (OHL), 6′2″ 186 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
10%
Scouting report
Ethan Czata is a 19-year-old centre with Guelph Storm in the OHL, undrafted. He has 3 goals and 8 assists in 9 games, 1.22 a game, which works out to about 14 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. That is up from 0.80 a game last season. His team scores 4.4 a game, one of the better offences around. And the five best scorers around him average 1.46 points a game, well above the norm. Some of those points come from the company he keeps, and the model discounts them. Listed at 6-foot-2 and 186 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is a long shot, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 10% chance of becoming an NHL regular. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner2%
- Middle-sixer3%
- Fourth-liner10%
- Tweener15%
- AHLer43%
How he got there
1His line
1.22 P/GP
3 G, 8 A in 9 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
14 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−18%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
19.3
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
35 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Guelph Storm | OHL | 9 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 1.22 |
| Last season | Niagara IceDogs | OHL | 63 | 25 | 28 | 53 | 0.84 |
| Last season | Syracuse Crunch | AHL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |