Prospect board, #1358 overall
Ethan MacKenzie
Defence, 20.0 years old, Edmonton Oil Kings (WHL)
Odds he's an NHL regular
8%
Scouting report
Ethan MacKenzie is a 20-year-old defenceman with Edmonton Oil Kings in the WHL, undrafted. He has 22 goals and 36 assists in 59 games, 0.98 a game, which works out to about 11 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. The five best scorers around him average 1.25 points a game, well above the norm. Some of those points come from the company he keeps, and the model discounts them. At 20.0 he is old for the league, so the model expects him to outscore younger players and gives less credit for it.
His most likely outcome is a long shot, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him an 8% chance of becoming an NHL regular. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- Top-pair1%
- Second-pair1%
- Third-pair8%
- Tweener8%
- AHLer31%
How he got there
1His line
0.98 P/GP
22 G, 36 A in 59 games, WHL
2League exchange rate
11 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−12%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
20.0
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
22 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | Edmonton Oil Kings | WHL | 59 | 22 | 36 | 58 | 0.98 |