Prospect board, #620 overall
Ethan Samson
Defence, 23.1 years old, Laval Rocket (AHL), 6′3″ 192 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
18%
Scouting report
Ethan Samson is a 23-year-old defenceman with Laval Rocket in the AHL. He has 0 goals and 0 assists in 5 games, 0.00 a game, which works out to about 0 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 4.2 a game, one of the better offences around. And the five best scorers around him average 1.47 points a game, well above the norm. Linemates like that pad a stat line, so the model takes some of his points back. Listed at 6-foot-3 and 192 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him an 18% chance of becoming an NHL regular. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- Top-pair<1%
- Second-pair2%
- Third-pair18%
- Tweener36%
- AHLer (most likely)75%
How he got there
1His line
0.00 P/GP
0 G, 0 A in 5 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
0 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−27%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
23.1
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
21 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Laval Rocket | AHL | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Last season | Syracuse Crunch | AHL | 40 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 0.45 |