Prospect board, #902 overall
Evan Headrick
Right wing, 18.7 years old, Erie Otters (OHL), 5′8″ 171 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
12%
Scouting report
Evan Headrick is an 18-year-old right wing with Erie Otters in the OHL. He has 2 goals and 3 assists in 11 games, 0.45 a game, which works out to about 5 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. That is up from 0.19 a game last season. His team scores 2.6 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. And the five best scorers around him average only 0.77 points a game. Scoring without much help counts for more, so the model nudges him up. Listed at 5-foot-8 and 171 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, with plenty of games behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 12% chance of becoming an NHL regular. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a full sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner<1%
- Middle-sixer2%
- Fourth-liner12%
- Tweener21%
- AHLer (most likely)54%
How he got there
1His line
0.45 P/GP
2 G, 3 A in 11 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
5 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+28%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
18.7
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
29 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Erie Otters | OHL | 11 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0.45 |
| Last season | Erie Otters | OHL | 68 | 9 | 4 | 13 | 0.19 |