Francesco Pinelli

Forward, 23.4 years old, Ontario Reign (AHL), 6′0″ 190 lb, shoots left

Odds he's an NHL regular

30%

AHLer

Scouting report

Francesco Pinelli is a 23-year-old forward with Ontario Reign in the AHL. He has 1 goal and 0 assists in 5 games, 0.20 a game, which works out to about 6 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Listed at 6-foot-0 and 190 pounds.

His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 30% chance of becoming an NHL regular. If he makes it, figure about 29 points a season at his best. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite<1%
First-liner2%
Middle-sixer4%
Fourth-liner30%
Tweener33%
AHLer (most likely)92%

How he got there

1His line
0.20 P/GP
1 G, 0 A in 5 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
6 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+4%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
23.4
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
29 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
This season	Ontario Reign	AHL	5	1	0	1	0.20
Last season	Ontario Reign	AHL	65	14	21	35	0.54