Prospect board, #812 overall
Gabe Smith
Forward, 20.1 years old, Tucson Roadrunners (AHL), 6′4″ 225 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
14%
Scouting report
Gabe Smith is a 20-year-old forward with Tucson Roadrunners in the AHL. He has 0 goals and 4 assists in 6 games, 0.67 a game, which works out to about 21 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate.
At 20.1 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 6-foot-4 and 225 pounds. The model's median outcome for him is a long shot, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 14% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 4% of a first-line career. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner4%
- Middle-sixer6%
- Fourth-liner14%
- Tweener15%
- AHLer37%
How he got there
1His line
0.67 P/GP
0 G, 4 A in 6 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
21 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
No change
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
20.1
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
41 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Tucson Roadrunners | AHL | 6 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.67 |
| Last season | Moncton Wildcats | QMJHL | 60 | 34 | 43 | 77 | 1.28 |