Prospect board, #811 overall
Gavin Burcar
Centre, 17.7 years old, Spokane Chiefs (WHL)
Odds he's an NHL regular
13%
Scouting report
Gavin Burcar is a 17-year-old centre with Spokane Chiefs in the WHL. He has 2 goals and 2 assists in 9 games, 0.44 a game, which works out to about 5 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. The five best scorers around him average 1.30 points a game, well above the norm. Some of those points come from the company he keeps, and the model discounts them.
His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 13% chance of becoming an NHL regular. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite1%
- First-liner1%
- Middle-sixer6%
- Fourth-liner13%
- Tweener15%
- AHLer (most likely)53%
How he got there
1His line
0.44 P/GP
2 G, 2 A in 9 games, WHL
2League exchange rate
5 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−12%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
17.7
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
38 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Spokane Chiefs | WHL | 9 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0.44 |
| Last season | Spokane Chiefs | WHL | 63 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 0.27 |